The ASX200 continues it stellar run, now up around 13% since the beginning of this game. Had a small pull back at the start of October, but seems now to be resuming upwards.
I sold out on the 6th Oct of AMC which finally broke through my initial stop on the 7th. So having great discipline, I exited out. Upon checking it now, it has since generated another buy and looks like it is now heading in the right direction. [Read more...]
I missed posting a diary last week as I was busy trying to source a NZX data feed that would integrate with Bullcharts.I ended up using Findata, but took several emails back and forwards before I could get it to work. Nick at Findata surely has the patience of a saint.
Now I’m wondering, with the small snapshot of data that I do have, if it will even accept the BullCharts indicators that I use. NZ stocks are so thinly traded it’s hard to tell.I guess I just have to sign up and get the historical data to find out. [Read more...]
I sold out of SLX on 2nd September, as it had broken through its stop (for the second time). Which was the price on open. Thinking about it, should probably wait for the 1st hour madness to subside before entering a sell order at market. So overall made a loss of $71, which was mainly fees.
Currently hold, CUS which is doing well. Stop at $2.70 equating to unrealised profit of about $1900. [Read more...]
Another so-so week. SLX broke through its stop loss on two consecutive occasions, so have placed a sell order for today.
The others are languishing without much headway at all.
The ASX200 forges ahead, reporting season is all but over. I keep reading that the market is due to retrace as it has increased too fast and the Sept/Oct months are usually time to pull profits out. We’ll see. It’s fast approaching a Fibonacci retracement line, so will be interesting to see if we break through that. [Read more...]
Been a quiet week, with hardly any buy signals. Today have brought into three shares that all showed buy signals. The market doesn’t seem to want to let off a great deal of steam and looks to now be in an uptrend, rather than a bear market rally.
Who am I to argue? So jumped in.
I’m still holding my original two, CUS and SLX. However, SLX did close twice consecutively under the stop – so I should have closed out of the position. But I kept an eye on it, and the market came back again the following day, so make the executive decision to stay in. Am watching closely though. This one will probably come back to haunt me.
Today purchased ABC (Adelaide Brighton); BLd (Boral) and PDN (Paladin Energy). LGL (Lihir Gold) also showed up as a buy, but besides not having enough capital, this share is still trending below its 34 day MA.
My goal for this game would be to finish in the top 15 percent of players (national). So need to be above 1815 in rankings.
The leaders have pulled away already. I wonder how they do it? Arh well – I guess I’ve been too cautious (again).
The story so far:
Profit/Loss to date: +6%
ASX 200: +6%
Cash on hand $4,761.93
Share holding value $48,436.12
Total portfolio worth $53,198.05
National performance (at close 25/08)
National leader $60,429.42
National average $51,326.04
Your ranking (at close 25/08)
National ranking 2159 of 12106
State ranking 471 of 2448
This week:
Closed trades: none
Open positions: ABC, BLD, PDN
THE ASX200 continues along its merry trend upwards. Only in the past couple of days has it let off some steam. However, since the start of the game it is still up 6%; having reaching a high of +8%.
My portfolio of two, is steady and up 5%. SLX has breached its stop yesterday, so if it closes below the stop loss today, I will be exiting.
CUS is doing well and hanging in their despite the market pull back.
I have identified another possible trade; SKI has triggered an entry two days ago. Will wait to see what today’s price action does.
I’m still playing rather cautiously until the market takes a breather and resumes one way or another.
The story so far as we move into 3rd week:
Profit/Loss to date: + 2,545 (5%)
ASX 200: + 6%
Cash on hand $29,255.19
Share holding value $23,290.49
Total portfolio worth $52,545.68
This week:
Closed trades: none
Opened: none
Open positions: CUS, SLX
Your current portfolio (live)
Portfolio total $53,137.38
National performance (at close 18/08)
National leader $59,225.38
National average $50,935.85
My ranking (at close 18/08)
National ranking 1739 of 11647
State ranking 368 of 2339
The current ASX game started on 30th July 2009. The ASX200 has had 21 days of positiveness, without a significant pullback trending from 3700 to 4300 since 14th July.
The game started with the index at 4142 on the 30th.
I’ve been reluctant to jump in boots and all until the market lets off some steam. I’ve entered just two positions on 3rd August with some trepidation.
CUS and SLX, as I received an entry signal. I also got an entry signal for AAC but decided not to act on it as the 34MA was in a down trend. However, that has also risen over the past days.
The story so far:
Profit/Loss to date: + 1,100 (2%)
ASX 200: + 4%
Cash on hand $29,255.19
Share holding value $21,845.10
Total portfolio worth $51,100.29
This week:
Closed trades: none
Open positions: CUS, SLX
I thought it prudent to review an alternate scenario to my trading during the recent game period. I take on board that some trades I probably exited too soon, on my belief that the market was due to let off some steam.
As I write, the market has indeed dropped substantially in the last week and looking like it might retest earlier March lows.
For this back-testing, I stuck to my trading plan – whereby I didn’t exit until the share price closed beneath the stop loss for two consecutive sessions. Which extended the duration of some of my early trades, especially PDN. Once the stop loss was activated, I’ve simply taken the next stock I entered as its replacement.
Just out of curiosity, I’ve also included a straight buy and hold of the original five shares selected. I read with interest that the winning portfolio was a simple buy and hold strategy (Holding AWC, MGR, GDY, BKN). However, I have doubt that this is a good strategy as after the recent drops in prices – those same portfolio’s would not look so rosy if the owners had continued to hold.
Scenario One:
Buy and Hold – the original selection of shares; just sit and wait (not a very exciting way to trade!)
WPL, UGL, PDN, SUN, JBH
Prices at close on 3/6/09
PDN would have been the highest earner at $4,580.
Profit; $15,871
Scenario Two:
Buy and Hold – but exit when stop loss broken by two consecutive closes beneath it (following my trading plan to the letter)
If a position, in theory was closed out, I have simply taken the next stock I purchased to replace it – not a faultless way to back-test – but will suffice.
Profit: $17,233.19 (+34%)
Overall number of Winners: 9
Overall number of Losers: 1
Biggest loss: $705 (COH)
Biggest win: $4790(PDN)
So this turned out to be an interesting exercise. By sticking to the plan I could have doubled my profits and made only 10 trades as opposed to 15. If I would have been really brave, PDN also triggered another buy during the trend, and would have been an opportunity to pyramid into this position.
What have I learnt?
The game closed without much difference from my last update. Overall I was pleased with how my trading went – obviously still more to learn and skills to refine!
In total I made 15 trades over the 14 weeks and my average time in a trade was 18 days. The broker fees roughly came to about $900, so it does make a large dent in your profits.
My total profitable trades were: $9,031
My total losses were: -$1,394
After reviewing some of my trades, my biggest challenge to master appears to be closing out of positions too early rather than adhering to my initial stop loss mark. This happened with PDN, which if held onto would have clocked an additional $4k to my account. I also did the same with BHP, when I confused the trailing stop with my initial stop loss – stupid mistake caused by lack of attention to the details! This would have changed the position from a (-200) loss to a profit of over $1000. Patience is a virtual, they say.
The next game starts in July, until then I’ll be taking a look into some SmallCap companies as they seem to be some big gains in these smaller shares.
Here are the stats from the portfolio I had running during the ASX share market game, as at close on 3rd June.
Cash on hand $21,480.83
Share holding value $36,208.30
Total portfolio worth $57,689.13
The story concludes:
Profit/Loss to date: +15%
ASX 200: +16%
Final week:
Closed trades: -
Open positions at close: WOW, OSH, LGL
Overall number of Winners: 11
Overall number of Losers: 4
Biggest loss: $673 (COH)
Biggest win: $1984 (WPL)
The ASX game closes today. It still amazes me that some players have nearly doubled their money – I wonder how they do it?
I guess I’ve been playing rather conservatively even though it’s only a game and there is no risk! It is great practice though and I’ve managed to fine tune my trading plan – and curb those tendencies to deviate from the plan – however tempting they are!
Portfolio total $57,721.83
National performance (at close 02/06)
National leader $99,831.89
National average $57,521.66
Your ranking (at close 02/06)
National ranking 5895 of 13406
The story so far:
Profit/Loss to date: +15%
ASX 200: +14%
Cash on hand $ 21,480.83
Share holding value $ 36,241.00
Total portfolio worth $ 57,721.83
This week:
Closed trades: -
Open positions: WOW, OSH, LGL
Winners: 8
Losers: 4
Biggest loss: $673 (COH)
Biggest win: $1984 (WPL)
